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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don'tUPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER "One of the more momentous books of the decade." The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012
UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER "One of the more momentous books of the decade."--The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger--all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox" The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good--or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary--and dangerous--science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.Binding Type: Paperback
Publisher: Penguin Books
Published: 02/03/2015
ISBN: 9780143125082
Pages: 576
Weight: 1.00lbs
Size: 8.30h x 5.40w x 1.10d
Review Citations: New York Times Book Review 03/01/2015 pg. 28
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4
3.5, Not 3.0
Color: Medium Set of 6
These balls were almost exactly what I needed. I was replacing my boyโs favorite ball, which is the 3โ squeaky, spikey ball that fits in the chuck it launcher. Unfortunately I saw the shiny object next to it and because there were SIX balls and a dollar less, I failed to see that these are 3.5โ balls instead of 3โโฆ. Great balls but no fitty in the slingy. Buyer beware. No chuck it no problem. Save a buck.
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Reviewed in the United States on March 9, 2026
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5
MY CHIHUAHUA LOVES THESE BALLS!!
Color: Samll Set of 8
My little chihuahua, BamBam, is addicted to balls, especially little balls that squeak! However, any balls that have material on them, BamBam will tear them apart, swallow the material and then get an upset tummy! These balls saved the day! BamBam LOVES them & she cannot tear them apart! They hold up so well! No matter how much BamBam plays with them, they keep squeaking away!
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Reviewed in the United States on July 15, 2025
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5
Great thick squeaky ball
Color: Large Set of 2
These are good thick rubbery squeaky balls. My boy loves them! He's 75lbs. Strong chewer. I hav hard time squeezing to squeak, but he doesn't... He loves it!!!
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Reviewed in the United States on March 24, 2026
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5
Squeaky ball
Color: Large Set of 4
Perfect squeaky ball. Dogs love them. I love that they're durable and their thickness aids their durability. My Great Dane will play alone for hours with a ball.
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Reviewed in the United States on June 20, 2025
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5
Fun
Color: Interactive Dog Ball
Fun!
Second purchase. Solid and rugged for 22 lb dog. He loves it.
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Reviewed in the United States on December 21, 2025
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